Regional permafrost monitoring system in natural test sites

Problem and implemented solution

Temperatures in the Arctic has risen to two or three times faster than the rest of the plane in the last 50 year to two to three degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. As permafrost (permafrost is a permanently frozen land ) thaws away due to the warming climate, it poses threats to the environment, infrastructure, and human lives. Covering a quarter of the northern hemisphere landmass, mainly above the Arctic Circle, permafrost is believed to contain around 1.7 trillion tonnes of carbon in a state of organic matter. It accounts for twice the amount of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Permafrost thaw could send these vast amounts of methane and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, causing further warming and creating a feedback loop of melting and more gas emissions. In Norilsk agglomeration infrastructure, buildings and transportation networks are constructed over a permafrost base, which is vulnerable to changes to climate and rapidly warming Arctic temperatures. This can spell disaster for the structures above, damaging buildings and roads as the permafrost degrades beneath. Permafrost thaw also releases damaging contaminants into the ecosystem, impacting food chains and community health. Climate change-related increases in costs (economic losses or damage) are estimated for several climate futures by 2050 separately for 39 municipalities located in the Russian Arctic permafrost domain. The economic losses (according calculation of scientists) were evaluated as maximum and minimum values at extreme values of permafrost parameters, separately for each case. The greatest damage is expected to housing stock and buildings and structures of main economic sectors. The potential damage for Russian Arctic may reach up to US$ 132 billion (total) and ~ US$ 15 billion for residential infrastructure alone. The UN has set one of the main goals for sustainable development in the world until 2030 to take urgent measures to combat climate change and its consequences. Permafrost monitoring system in natural test sites is necessary to assess the current state of permafrost and develop scientifically based forecast models and measures to adapt to climate change in the region.

Longlist
Russia
Nomination

Climate And Environmental Technologies

Topic

Climate change control technologies

Estimated duration of implementation

Three years formation of permafrost monitoring system in region and then annual monitoring (including the use of automatic monitoring systems)

Implementation geography

Territory from the Norilsk industrial region to Dudinka (approximately 8000 km2)

Description of competitive advantages

1) A new methodological approach has been developed for selecting sites for test sites in natural conditions using data on tectonic structure, geology, geomorphology, vegetation cover, and a new multi-parameter protocol of research has been proposed (includes parameter of permafrost than similar ones in other countries)Integrated monitoring system 2) Air Temperature measurements (one state meteorological station and 4 automatic meteorological stations) Snow Cover Vegetation Cover Lithology, Composition, and Physical Properties of Soils Ground Temperature Measurements Geophysical monitoring Monitoring of cryogenic processes 3) The monitoring data are used to create and calibrate mathematical models for modeling the impact of climate on permafrost. In addition, it is possible to forecast and assess the impact of climate on permafrost up to 2100. The more monitoring data is accumulated, the more accurate the predictive models will be. 4) Implementation of the developed monitoring system into the information system for ensuring the stability of the infrastructure Polar division of PJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel

List of awards and prizes, media articles about the organization/individual or the Practice

1. Winer National Environmental Prize named after V.I. Vernadsky 2023, nominations "Science for Sustainable development" 2. Grand Prix, National contest GPM Awards Russia 2023, nomination "Scientific Research" 3. 2 place, International contest of National association of members performing engineering surveys and design documentation 2023, nomination "The best project in the field of engineering surveys, including methodological and technological work" 4. Winner of the All-Russian competition "Engineer of the Year 2023", nomination "Geology, land management, geodesy, cartography" (Kotov P.I.)

List of scientific works and IP connected with the Practice

1. Kotov P.I., Ospennikov E.N., Cherbunina M.Yu., Makarova O.M. Scientific and methodological foundations of organizing and conducting permafrost monitoring (on the example of the territory from the Norilsk industrial region to Dudinka), 226 p, (in print) 2. Kazantsev V.S., Krivenok L.A., Cherbunina M.Yu., Kotov P.I. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Natural Ecosystems of the Norilsk Industrial Region // Arctic and Antarctic. 2023. No. 4. P. 19-41. DOI: 10.7256/2453-8922.2023.4.69058

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